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More Good News on Sterling - DespiteBrexit 
Post: #1   PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:45 pm Reply with quote
clive of payia
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Data from the ONS shows labour productivity grew by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2017, which represents the largest growth since the second quarter of 2011.

Labour productivity grew in both the services and manufacturing industries; services productivity grew by 1.0% on the previous quarter, and manufacturing productivity also grew by 1.0%.

The data raises hopes that wage growth will soon start accelerating as wages are seen as a function of the productivity of the labour force.
The news is good for those hoping for a stronger Sterling in 2018.

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Re: More Good News on Sterling - DespiteBrexit 
Post: #2   PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:01 pm Reply with quote
Steve - SJD
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clive of payia wrote:
The data raises hopes that wage growth will soon start accelerating as wages are seen as a function of the productivity of the labour force


Won't any marginal increase in wages be offset by an increase in inflation?

Cheers

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Re: More Good News on Sterling - DespiteBrexit 
Post: #3   PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:13 pm Reply with quote
Kwacka
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clive of payia wrote:
Data from the ONS shows labour productivity grew by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2017, which represents the largest growth since the second quarter of 2011.


Do you have a link for this, please?

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Re: More Good News on Sterling - DespiteBrexit 
Post: #4   PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:37 pm Reply with quote
Woodrow Why?at
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Kwacka wrote:
clive of payia wrote:
Data from the ONS shows labour productivity grew by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2017, which represents the largest growth since the second quarter of 2011.


Do you have a link for this, please?


Even if these figures are proved to be correct, does the honourable member from payia (small 'p'!!) have any evidence to support the supposition that they wouldn't have been so much better but for the vote to leave the EU? Confused Cool

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Post: #5   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:23 am Reply with quote
Mr Tibbs
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Poor old Clive! Very Happy

He posts a bit of cheerful news about the UK economy, buried in Exchange Money and Rates, which basically gets:

1. So what?

2. Prove it.

and

3. Yes, but what if? ( Confused ).

Clive. You should stick to less provocative Brexit OP titles. Something along the lines of ď1/2 - Cypriot spits in Theresaís eyeĒ.

Laughing
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Post: #6   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:56 am Reply with quote
clive of payia
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Yes, Mr Tibbs very sad indeed. One can only wonder what state of mind the Remoaners will be in when the UK finally leaves. Take EU citizenship might be the answer? That is until the EU, like its forerunners, USSR, GDR, Cuba and Venezuela finally collapses.

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Re: More Good News on Sterling - DespiteBrexit 
Post: #7   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:01 am Reply with quote
sugarray1955
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clive of payia wrote:
Data from the ONS shows labour productivity grew by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2017, which represents the largest growth since the second quarter of 2011.

Labour productivity grew in both the services and manufacturing industries; services productivity grew by 1.0% on the previous quarter, and manufacturing productivity also grew by 1.0%.

The data raises hopes that wage growth will soon start accelerating as wages are seen as a function of the productivity of the labour force.
The news is good for those hoping for a stronger Sterling in 2018.


As far as I am aware we are still in the EU Wink come back with figures post brexit and see if they are still on the increase. No one knows whether we will be better off post brexit, it could be a great thing or it could be a disaster, only time will tell. On a more negative note the car industry has reported that new car sales have fallen and by the biggest rate since 2009 and expect a further drop this year.
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Re: More Good News on Sterling - DespiteBrexit 
Post: #8   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:09 am Reply with quote
sugarray1955
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Kwacka wrote:
clive of payia wrote:
Data from the ONS shows labour productivity grew by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2017, which represents the largest growth since the second quarter of 2011.


Do you have a link for this, please?


This is one I found in the FT and reading the report it is not as rosy as the OP suggests.
This is an excerpt from the article,



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Re: More Good News on Sterling - DespiteBrexit 
Post: #9   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:51 am Reply with quote
Mr Tibbs
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sugarray1955 wrote:
This is one I found in the FT and reading the report it is not as rosy as the OP suggests.


Your picture took ages to download (20 mbs) and came up as a blank square here.

What Clive posted is a matter of ONS fact, embellished at the end with a small sprinkling of financial sector forecasting. There were no outrageous views in it.

Hereís a take on it by the Guardian, which, along with the Observer, tends to be the most anti-Brexit (trying not to say ďrabidĒ Very Happy ) of the quality news sheets. Iíve learned to take any article on the subject by either of them with a pinch of salt.

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Thereís stuff like this cropping up quite regularly, which doesnít tend to get aired in here (like this one, it gets its share of hassle).

Off the top - I canít be bothered on a tablet linking it - I read a business news article recently which reported Goldman Sachs as saying they had now decided to hold back on their threatened mass move to the continent for the moment. This, from a casino bank thatís been intimating the City of London becoming a post-apocalyptic wasteland since the referendum.............For example.

I view events like Cliveís OP in the light of the pre-referendum predictions made in the event of a Leave outcome. An immediate deep recession. An emergency budget, resulting in eye-watering increases in interest and tax rates. Deep cuts in NHS, other public sector spending and pensions. The whole lot now proven to be blatant, scaremongering lies. Which is why the continuing campaign (succinctly named Project Fear) is treated with the lack of credibility itís well earned. Wolf! Wink
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Re: More Good News on Sterling - DespiteBrexit 
Post: #10   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:03 am Reply with quote
Mr Tibbs
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sugarray1955 wrote:
On a more negative note the car industry has reported that new car sales have fallen and by the biggest rate since 2009 and expect a further drop this year.


I havenít checked but seem to recall reading (somewhere between Lisbon and Lanzarote Cool ) that the drop was primarily to do with a big fall in consumer confidence brought about by HMGís actions wrt diesel vehicles. Sales of that class dropped by about a third. Petrol vehicles dropping by next to nothing. Havenít car sales also rocketed in recent years? If so, any current drop would look bad, I imagine. Think
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Post: #11   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:07 pm Reply with quote
Woodrow Why?at
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clive of payia wrote:
Yes, Mr Tibbs very sad indeed. One can only wonder what state of mind the Remoaners will be in when the UK finally leaves. Take EU citizenship might be the answer? That is until the EU, like its forerunners, USSR, GDR, Cuba and Venezuela finally collapses.


No, what is "very sad indeed" is the be-leavers scraping around the bottom of the barrel attempting to find a smidgen of good news amongst the wreckage!! Rolling Eyes

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Re: More Good News on Sterling - DespiteBrexit 
Post: #12   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:43 pm Reply with quote
Kwacka
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Mr Tibbs wrote:
I view events like Cliveís OP in the light of the pre-referendum predictions made in the event of a Leave outcome. An immediate deep recession. An emergency budget, resulting in eye-watering increases in interest and tax rates. Deep cuts in NHS, other public sector spending and pensions. The whole lot now proven to be blatant, scaremongering lies. Which is why the continuing campaign (succinctly named Project Fear) is treated with the lack of credibility itís well earned. Wolf! Wink


You missed out the 350 million quid/week to the NHS if there was a 'leave' vote - Project Faith, perhaps?

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Re: More Good News on Sterling - DespiteBrexit 
Post: #13   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:27 pm Reply with quote
Mr Tibbs
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Kwacka wrote:
Mr Tibbs wrote:
I view events like Cliveís OP in the light of the pre-referendum predictions made in the event of a Leave outcome. An immediate deep recession. An emergency budget, resulting in eye-watering increases in interest and tax rates. Deep cuts in NHS, other public sector spending and pensions. The whole lot now proven to be blatant, scaremongering lies. Which is why the continuing campaign (succinctly named Project Fear) is treated with the lack of credibility itís well earned. Wolf! Wink


You missed out the 350 million quid/week to the NHS if there was a 'leave' vote - Project Faith, perhaps?


The £350,000,000 a week is a fact. Thatís what the UK currently contributes to Brusselís coffers. Clearly, it wouldnít all end up going to the gaping maw of the NHS. (Heresy, I appreciate. However, there will never be enough. The NHS is a victim of its own success.). The point was made, nevertheless.

As always, IMHO, a naff way of making it. Not least because itís been manipulated into an oft repeated, diversionary propaganda tool by the die-hards. Thatís you Kwacka! Wink Very Happy
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Post: #14   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:45 pm Reply with quote
Mr Tibbs
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Woodrow Why?at wrote:
No, what is "very sad indeed" is the be-leavers scraping around the bottom of the barrel attempting to find a smidgen of good news amongst the wreckage!! Rolling Eyes


Iíve never personally tried to disguise the fact that there will be plenty of bad news in the early years. Some of it helped along by the loud divisions within the UK that the EUís currently witnessing. IMHO ( Laughing ) ultimately itís a price worth paying though.

Having freely admitted that, I have to say, what wreckage? Confused

Also, I wouldnít call the biggest increase in UK production (for whatever reason) in 5 years ďa smidgen of good newsĒ. Confused

As an aside. Interesting to read the recent interviews with Macron (Merkel being too absorbed in the collapse of Germanyís government due to - funny ole fing - EU related stuff). Heís been pleading for the 27 to stand firm and not pursue nationalist trade advantage (thatís gotta happen Very Happy ). Whilst, on the side, invoking national legislative measures to try to entice elements of the City of London to uproot and move to .................France. Priceless hypocrisy. Rolling Eyes Very Happy
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Post: #15   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:32 pm Reply with quote
Kwacka
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Mr Tibbs wrote:


As an aside. Interesting to read the recent interviews with Macron (Merkel being too absorbed in the collapse of Germanyís government due to - funny ole fing - EU related stuff). Heís been pleading for the 27 to stand firm and not pursue nationalist trade advantage (thatís gotta happen Very Happy ). Whilst, on the side, invoking national legislative measures to try to entice elements of the City of London to uproot and move to .................France. Priceless hypocrisy. Rolling Eyes Very Happy


Why hypocrisy?

Won't it be better for the EU if the UK financial sector moves to one of the remaining 27 countries in the EU?

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Post: #16   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:03 pm Reply with quote
Mr Tibbs
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Kwacka wrote:
Mr Tibbs wrote:


As an aside. Interesting to read the recent interviews with Macron (Merkel being too absorbed in the collapse of Germanyís government due to - funny ole fing - EU related stuff). Heís been pleading for the 27 to stand firm and not pursue nationalist trade advantage (thatís gotta happen Very Happy ). Whilst, on the side, invoking national legislative measures to try to entice elements of the City of London to uproot and move to .................France. Priceless hypocrisy. Rolling Eyes Very Happy


Why hypocrisy?

Won't it be better for the EU if the UK financial sector moves to one of the remaining 27 countries in the EU?


It isnít going to move, however much some might wish it. Paris and Hamburg trying to leach from the Worldís premier financial centre is nothing new. Theyíve been at it for years - jointly - and it hasnít happened for reasons which have nothing to do with Brexit that remain extant.

If you canít see the hypocrisy in Macronís telling everyone in the EU not to cherry pick aspects of UK trade, to stand together in solidarity, whilst trying to feather the Paris Bourse nest - itís because you simply donít want to.

I take it your OK with the rest of it though? Laughing

BTW. Hereís a little reminder for some. Not you of course Kwacka. Youíre a principled democrat.

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Post: #17   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:22 pm Reply with quote
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Mr Tibbs wrote:
Kwacka wrote:
Mr Tibbs wrote:


As an aside. Interesting to read the recent interviews with Macron (Merkel being too absorbed in the collapse of Germanyís government due to - funny ole fing - EU related stuff). Heís been pleading for the 27 to stand firm and not pursue nationalist trade advantage (thatís gotta happen Very Happy ). Whilst, on the side, invoking national legislative measures to try to entice elements of the City of London to uproot and move to .................France. Priceless hypocrisy. Rolling Eyes Very Happy


Why hypocrisy?

Won't it be better for the EU if the UK financial sector moves to one of the remaining 27 countries in the EU?


It isnít going to move, however much some might wish it. Paris and Hamburg trying to leach from the Worldís premier financial centre is nothing new. Theyíve been at it for years - jointly - and it hasnít happened for reasons which have nothing to do with Brexit that remain extant.

If you canít see the hypocrisy in Macronís telling everyone in the EU not to cherry pick aspects of UK trade, to stand together in solidarity, whilst trying to feather the Paris Bourse nest - itís because you simply donít want to.

I take it your OK with the rest of it though? Laughing

BTW. Hereís a little reminder for some. Not you of course Kwacka. Youíre a principled democrat.

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Your comment doesn't make any mention of Macron "telling everyone in the EU not to cherry pick aspects of UK trade' - you say that he suggests that the EU27 should 'stand together'.

IMHO, Macron would be failing in his duty if he didn't try to attract foreign business to France/the EU over external states/blocs.

I'm not (like some here Wink ) a prophet. I don't know whether the British financial services will leave the UK or whether it will remain in the UK as it is, in a diminished role, or leave for overseas.

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Post: #18   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:08 pm Reply with quote
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Kwacka wrote:
Your comment doesn't make any mention of Macron "telling everyone in the EU not to cherry pick aspects of UK trade' - you say that he suggests that the EU27 should 'stand together'.


He didn't suggest anything. He appealed for unity (echoed by Brussels) and for countries to resist the urge to pursue their own self-interests (you know, like acquiring financial services Laughing ). The prisoner's dilemma. As a student and practitioner of psychology you're probably familiar with it?

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Macron's (a relative hardliner) words, were an interesting interjection because they were an implicit admission that it's a major area of concern. Ireland and Hungary have already broken ranks in publicly appealing for a free trade deal with the UK.

As far as prophets go? Well, it's seemed to me that since this situation arose there's never been a shortage of the doom variety hereabouts. Very Happy Wink
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Post: #19   PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:32 pm Reply with quote
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Mr Tibbs wrote:
Kwacka wrote:
Your comment doesn't make any mention of Macron "telling everyone in the EU not to cherry pick aspects of UK trade' - you say that he suggests that the EU27 should 'stand together'.


He didn't suggest anything. He appealed for unity (echoed by Brussels) and for countries to resist the urge to pursue their own self-interests (you know, like acquiring financial services Laughing ). The prisoner's dilemma. As a student and practitioner of psychology you're probably familiar with it?

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Macron's (a relative hardliner) words, were an interesting interjection because they were an implicit admission that it's a major area of concern. Ireland and Hungary have already broken ranks in publicly appealing for a free trade deal with the UK.


Are you suggesting that Hungary and/or Ireland will veto any deal if it doesn't include a free trade deal with between the EU & UK?

BTW, I'm not sure that the Prisoners' Dilemma is in any way a description of the situation - how does France/Macron suffer if the UK financial services stay in London? And how will the situation deteriorate from the status quo (from France's viewpoint) if it goes to Frankfurt/Dublin/Nicosia/Sofia/etc. rather than stay in London?

It appears, to me at least, to be more akin to Adam Smith's 'invisible hand' (but equally out of context).

Mr Tibbs wrote:
As far as prophets go? Well, it's seemed to me that since this situation arose there's never been a shortage of the doom variety hereabouts. Very Happy Wink


Only outnumbered here by those wearing rose-tinted spectacles. Very Happy

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Post: #20   PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:26 am Reply with quote
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Mr Tibbs wrote:

Interesting to read the recent interviews with Macron (Merkel being too absorbed in the collapse of Germanyís government due to - funny ole fing - EU related stuff).

Where did you get the idea from that Merkelīs administration collapsed due to "EU related stuff"? The election results had very little to do with the EU, which wasnīt even discussed much in the run-up to the election (nor has it been much thereafter). It was a result of internal policies which caused quite some discontent (e. g. pensions, which have taken a dive following reunification) and her migration policies which gave rise to a nationalist party being represented in parliament.
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More Good News on Sterling - DespiteBrexit 
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