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Economic crisis 
Post: #1   PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 10:39 pm Reply with quote
dylan
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An article with some background information appeared in today's Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/19/demetris-christofias-cyprus-sorry-state?INTCMP=SRCH
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Post: #2   PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:39 am Reply with quote
Kwacka
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See earlier 'Bubblechris' thread referring to this.

Note that the article is an opinion piece by the person blamed by Christophias for the state of the economy.

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Post: #3   PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:45 pm Reply with quote
dylan
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Obviously an opinion piece as part of a blog but interesting to note the powers that were taken back under political control.

What is more worrying is today's IMF statement on the bailout, if true

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/imf-demands-cyprus-debt-haircut-as-precondition-for-aid-a-874085.html

I fear Cyprus may be counting their chickens before they have hatched! I hope not but this does not look good for any of us.
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Post: #4   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 7:54 am Reply with quote
geoffreys
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dylan wrote:
Obviously an opinion piece as part of a blog but interesting to note the powers that were taken back under political control.

What is more worrying is today's IMF statement on the bailout, if true

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/imf-demands-cyprus-debt-haircut-as-precondition-for-aid-a-874085.html

I fear Cyprus may be counting their chickens before they have hatched! I hope not but this does not look good for any of us.


I keep asking this question, but so far no one has given me an answer. What will be the likely effect on Brit Expat Retirees resident here if the Cyprus economy does go belly up?
Geoff
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Post: #5   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:11 am Reply with quote
spurs
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geoffreys wrote:
dylan wrote:
Obviously an opinion piece as part of a blog but interesting to note the powers that were taken back under political control.

What is more worrying is today's IMF statement on the bailout, if true

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/imf-demands-cyprus-debt-haircut-as-precondition-for-aid-a-874085.html

I fear Cyprus may be counting their chickens before they have hatched! I hope not but this does not look good for any of us.


I keep asking this question, but so far no one has given me an answer. What will be the likely effect on Brit Expat Retirees resident here if the Cyprus economy does go belly up?
Geoff
No one has given you an answer because its a stupid question every expats situation is entirely different ...one expat might have ten million in his back pocket another might have two pence...... Rolling Eyes
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Post: #6   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:11 am Reply with quote
Jascat
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geoffreys wrote:
dylan wrote:
Obviously an opinion piece as part of a blog but interesting to note the powers that were taken back under political control.

What is more worrying is today's IMF statement on the bailout, if true

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/imf-demands-cyprus-debt-haircut-as-precondition-for-aid-a-874085.html

I fear Cyprus may be counting their chickens before they have hatched! I hope not but this does not look good for any of us.


I keep asking this question, but so far no one has given me an answer. What will be the likely effect on Brit Expat Retirees resident here if the Cyprus economy does go belly up?
Geoff



Providing your source of income is from outwith Cyprus & you don't have your savings here, the effects should be much less than on Cypriots.
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Post: #7   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:25 am Reply with quote
geoffreys
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Jascat wrote:
geoffreys wrote:
dylan wrote:
Obviously an opinion piece as part of a blog but interesting to note the powers that were taken back under political control.

What is more worrying is today's IMF statement on the bailout, if true

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/imf-demands-cyprus-debt-haircut-as-precondition-for-aid-a-874085.html

I fear Cyprus may be counting their chickens before they have hatched! I hope not but this does not look good for any of us.


I keep asking this question, but so far no one has given me an answer. What will be the likely effect on Brit Expat Retirees resident here if the Cyprus economy does go belly up?
Geoff



Providing your source of income is from outwith Cyprus & you don't have your savings here, the effects should be much less than on Cypriots.


Many thanks for that Jascat. Can you quantify that at all, like we would be better off than Cypriots by between this % and that %?
What is your thoughts on the scale in other words?
Geoff
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Post: #8   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:43 am Reply with quote
eddiewizz
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geoffreys wrote:
Jascat wrote:
geoffreys wrote:
dylan wrote:
Obviously an opinion piece as part of a blog but interesting to note the powers that were taken back under political control.

What is more worrying is today's IMF statement on the bailout, if true

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/imf-demands-cyprus-debt-haircut-as-precondition-for-aid-a-874085.html

I fear Cyprus may be counting their chickens before they have hatched! I hope not but this does not look good for any of us.


I keep asking this question, but so far no one has given me an answer. What will be the likely effect on Brit Expat Retirees resident here if the Cyprus economy does go belly up?
Geoff



Providing your source of income is from outwith Cyprus & you don't have your savings here, the effects should be much less than on Cypriots.


Many thanks for that Jascat. Can you quantify that at all, like we would be better off than Cypriots by between this % and that %?
What is your thoughts on the scale in other words?Geoff


I disagree with Jascat the effects of this situation will affect everybody on a day to day basis pretty equally in so much as it does not matter what your income or savings are what you will see is an erosion of your spending power as the austerity measures come in to effect i.e. cigarettes, alcohol and tobacco will cost more, the increase in VAT means goods will cost more, the increase in fuel duty will mean that prices rise also as the costs of distribution will increase so food costs will rise in the supermarkets as they did in the UK, prices of services will increase the list goes on and on, the only glimmer of hope is that the Pound continues to strenghten aginst the Euro and that will provide some relief if your income comes in from the UK in Sterling.

All in all I think next year will be the toughest year we have seen yet especially if you run a business, there is little or no comsumer confidence at the moment because of all the uncertainty of what is going to happen.

In short your buck will buy you less next year than it does now or you will need more to buy the same as you do now whatever way you want to look at it, if you are on a budget its belt tightening time - AGAIN.

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Post: #9   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:23 am Reply with quote
Jascat
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I would rather rely on my income coming from outwith Cyprus. Those who work in Cyprus will be worse off, as jobs are lost & wages slashed.
I am not saying retired expats will escape the effects of austerity, but I think they will be in a better position to manage, as their income will remain reasonably stable.
I would still rather be an expat in Cyprus, even with some austerity. It is no better anywhere else.

Geoff. Sorry, my crystal ball cannot determine exact percentages.
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Post: #10   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:42 am Reply with quote
bubblechris
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eddiewizz, you make it sound like it's a Cyprus problem.

Isn't the situation the same the world over?

At least in Cyprus we do have a potentially exciting future provided the gas and hopefully oil finds are sensibly handled. Very unlikely I know but one can hope........................
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Post: #11   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:58 am Reply with quote
devil
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Of course it varies from household to household. We'll be little affected. Neither of us smoke. Practically the only alcohol we consume is wine, which is exempted. Food VAT will not rise until 2014. As I run a hybrid, I buy only ~30 l/month, so the extra tax on that will be <€2/month. Generally, we rarely buy much at the full VAT rate, perhaps electricity averaging an extra €3.00/2 months and CYTA at €0.80/month. I have no idea, nor does anyone else, re IPT should our deeds be issued at some time.

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Post: #12   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:50 am Reply with quote
eddiewizz
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bubblechris wrote:
eddiewizz, you make it sound like it's a Cyprus problem.

Isn't the situation the same the world over?

At least in Cyprus we do have a potentially exciting future provided the gas and hopefully oil finds are sensibly handled. Very unlikely I know but one can hope........................


Bubblecris I live here not the rest of the world I,m not really bothered what is going on elsewhere I,m worried about here, because here is where I have to try to stay alive and make a living Crying or Very sad

And yes, agree, the gas will make a difference but when?

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Post: #13   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:44 pm Reply with quote
dylan
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My understanding is that the gas, assuming viable, will not be available for 7 to 10 years.
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Post: #14   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 2:07 pm Reply with quote
geoffreys
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Jascat wrote:
I would rather rely on my income coming from outwith Cyprus. Those who work in Cyprus will be worse off, as jobs are lost & wages slashed.
I am not saying retired expats will escape the effects of austerity, but I think they will be in a better position to manage, as their income will remain reasonably stable.
I would still rather be an expat in Cyprus, even with some austerity. It is no better anywhere else.

Geoff. Sorry, my crystal ball cannot determine exact percentages.


Fair enough, and again thanks for your original reply.
At the present and projected exchange rate GBP>Euro most of
us expats should not be as badly off as the Cypriots - as you said.
Have a Happy Christmas - let us hope for a Prosperous New Year (but I am not holding my breath).
Geoff
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Post: #15   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:03 pm Reply with quote
cansweet
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21/12/2012 - 11:40:57
Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Cyprus further into junk status amid concerns that the country could default on its debts.

It said the two-notch downgrade to CCC+ is due to a “considerable and rising” risk that the country, one of the 17 EU countries that uses the euro, may default.

It also maintains its negative outlook on the country, meaning further downgrades are possible.

S&P said it went ahead with the downgrade because the Cypriot government is running out of money while uncertainty remains over the terms of a bailout it is trying to negotiate with international lenders to salvage its banks that are heavily exposed to debt-crushed Greece.
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Post: #16   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:35 pm Reply with quote
dylan
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In CM this morning the Finance Minister said there was to be no "debt hair cut" for Cyprus.

At lunchtime today a spokes person for Angela Murkel said that the German Government would not rule out a debt hair cut.

Obviously there is a lot going on in the background over the bailout for Cyprus which seems far from a done deal.

Perhaps the Germans are fed up bank rolling, pardon the pun,the debts of others.
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Post: #17   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:54 pm Reply with quote
Kwacka
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Strange, I read the other day about the hyenas turning their attention towards Germany.

Regarding effects on Cyprus of austerity measures, the same as the UK - fewer jobs, less income from taxes, more empty shops/charity shops, services cut.

Ex-pats with a non-euro income from outside Cyprus likely to be better off (unless those hyenas turn their attention to their currency) than Cypriots.

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Post: #18   PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:51 pm Reply with quote
dylan
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[quote]Strange, I read the other day about the hyenas turning their attention towards Germany.(quote)

That would fit Kwacka. Whilst we do not really know anything perhaps Cyprus already does. More smoke and mirrors perhaps.

In addition to the loss of jobs, higher taxes (direct and indirect) the banks will need more money to recapitalise - a bigger loan. Not forgetting that EAC, Cyta and Port Authority may have lost their money, or rather employees pension money.

The more I read about the subject the more I feel that Cyprus may be thrown to the wolves as the debt is, in the scheme of things, too small to be of any great concern to the EU.
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Post: #19   PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 12:41 am Reply with quote
ethel
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I think the gas windfall belongs to future generations not to the self serving nincompoops that have run this Island into the ground as i dont think they can be trusted to run a bath let alone a country and i am not just blaming the Comrade but if you look at the average Cypriot and i work with quite a few they have no concept of the real world in that they have a 4 bed house a merc 220 the wife has a Chelsea tractor and he works as a gardener or something like that and he is up to his ears in debt and the wife is working in a shop or something like that.Some of the people i work with have some serious debt issues and pay the wages out on the day they are paid and the tax they pay is minimal well you cant run a country like that especially when 27 per cent work in the private sector as someone has to pay to keep this gravy train running and i hope they look at the uk where 40 years of North Sea oil and gas has been squandered and we have nothing to show for it.
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Post: #20   PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:04 am Reply with quote
dylan
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Seems like all is not well after all and the 21st January 2013 is going to be a big day

http://www.cyprus-mail.com/node/91749
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