At 2300 hours on the 29th March 2019, UK time, the UK will officially leave the European Union under the terms of Article 50, with a No Deal and consequently no two-year Implementation Period; the House of Commons rejecting a pathetic and spiteful offer from the EU. An offer the UK was fully expecting and an offer the EU deliberately formulated in order to discourage other EU countries from leaving and seeking their full independence from the yoke of the failing EU.
No Deal also means leaving scot-free with no so-called penalty payment of circa £40 Billion, but obviously paying what we do owe. With a whopping £80 billion trade deficit with the EU; we import 320 billion worth of imports from the EU, whilst we only export 240 billion worth of our goods to the EU, a No Deal is hugely financially beneficial to the UK.
The other main reason the UK Parliament rejected the EU's proposal it did not include Financial Trade & Services; the City of London, the world's financial trading centre; the very financial centre that also oils the financial wheels of the EU.
Out of the EU and working on World Trade Organisation Rules, incidentally WTO rules that the UK trade 80% of our goods with the rest of the world without political strings attached, is following the EU's own statement, "future growth is outside of the EU."
The vexed question of the "City" has always been an anathema to the socialist-minded mainland of Europe and to many UK citizens; many EU politicians consider it very Anglo Saxon although quite happy to ask for financial assistance when their socialist plans go awry; and desperately trying to emulate it. Having regulated their Bourses virtually out of existence, any semblance of competition between the EU's own financial centres and London, dramatically faded years ago as the world banks established offices and European headquarters in London in October 1986, known as the "Big Bang." Many European banks who moved to London thrived financially far better than had they remained in their own country.
The future is now financial competition between New York, a European hub in London, and centres in Asia. However, while Paris, Frankfurt and Milan will remain central for their own domestic economies, only London has the critical mass as a European-located global financial centre. So unless the EU embraces the City they will find themselves at the mercy of New York and the Far East hubs in different time zones and with markedly increased operating costs; cannot see the EU businesses ever tolerating that; then they were never asked.
London is currently home to the world’s largest number of banks and hosts the largest commercial insurance market. About six trillion euros ($6.8 trillion), or 37 percent, of Europe’s financial assets are managed in the UK's financial capital, almost twice the amount of its nearest European rival, Paris. And London dominates Europe’s 5.2 trillion euro investment banking industry. The City is larger than the sum of all the Bourses in the EU. Some further facts:
• UK-based financial services account for 40 per cent of Europe’s assets under management, and 60 per cent of its capital markets business.
• UK-based banks provide more than £1.1tn of loans to other EU member states.
• There are 5,500 British firms using passports into Europe, and over 8,000 EU and EEA passports operating in the UK.
These figures are staggering and should heavily underline our financial importance to the European Union. As Mark Carney, ardent Remainer said in November last year, “the UK is effectively the investment banker for Europe”. London is critical to the liquidity of the European Union.
If Brussels cuts off its nose to spite its face, and doesn't include financial services in a deal, do EU firms wake up New York financiers during the night and ask them to rummage around their drawers for the capital they need for a crucial and imminent investment? Or, do they look to the world’s leading financial hub London, which happens to be in their time zone, and has an unparalleled range of expertise and services, including international insurance, derivatives, forex and fund management; as well as the complimentary legal and accounting services.
There is no other EU country in the top 10 in the global financial index; London is number one, Frankfurt comes in the next at a poor number 11. The future of the EU after Brexit depends on a thriving London. Frankfurt and Paris (26th on the index) will not develop competing financial infrastructure overnight. Indeed, one wonders with the regulatory-obsessed EU and anti-business employment conditions, if they ever will. My guess is that EU businesses wouldn't even think of using New York or Tokyo for major financial services for European trade and will just ignore the unelected EU Commission and just carry on as usual with London.
So the one hour before midnight of the 29th March 2019 is the fateful hour when the President of the European Union, could be Michel Barnier by then, makes that call to the UK Prime Minister, could Jacob Rees-Mogg, agreeing to include Financial and Trading into a Free Trade Deal under WTO rules. Will he? I think he will and the call may come long before the official deadline, say October this year, 2018. No EU president will want to go down in history as the politician that hastened the inevitable end of yet another socialist dream, as did its predecessors, the USSR and GDR.
If the EU Commissioners still decide to play hard ball with the UK, the UK can carry on free trading with the rest of the world under WTO rules. So many non-EU and EU countries have declared they are ready for a trade deal. Through the City, the UK has the financial muscle to finance our trade dealing and that of others worldwide countries profitably, whereas the EU may be able to finance its self for a short while but the crunch will come as the world continues to lose faith with the failing Eurozone with its increasing indebtedness.
Remember folk's democracy and the will of the people is not the unelected EU Commissioners strongest point. EU businesses and voters will not idly stand by and watch their trade with the UK disappear to the likes of the USA, Africa, New Zealand and Australia where the UK can trade tariff and politically free. They are also acutely aware that the USA will soon declare that they will only trade with truly democratic countries tariff-free, no trade deals. So that's the EU's Single Market destroyed. That will be the double and probably final blow to the EU.
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If you are still an ardent Remainer and inclined to respond to my article, could you please include just one, repeat just one, the Queen asks for three, legal and honest killer reason or action the EU or the pro-EU lobby in Parliament could take that would make the majority of the UK Leave voters change our minds. Many of us have been asking this question since the Brexit campaign started and not one reason has ever emerged.
You're wasting your time WW, you can't reason with the unreasonable.
CoP, did you really think that the UK could get an extra two years membership free of charge?
THOSE ARE THE TERMS THE LEADERS OF THE OTHER 27 COUNTRIES HAVE DEMOCRATICALLY DECIDED THE U.K. MUST PAY FOR THE 2 YEAR TRANSITIONAL THAT THE UK HAS REQUESTED.
You voted for it, CoP, you're getting it - stop whinging.
BTW, I was tempted to write TLDR, but I managed to survive a couple of sentences into your usual illogical cut/paste lecture, and thought I'd put one of your arguments into context. By leaving the world's largest economy, the UK will be cutting itself out of 40% of its market, whilst the EU will be deprived of 4% of its market.
Last edited by Kwacka on Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:10 am; edited 1 time in total
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